CDZ Five Top Tech Challenges for Nations over the next 50 years

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by JimBowie1958, Oct 18, 2019.

  1. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    I dont hear too many people running for President talking about these things, other than Yang, and this concerns me.

    1) Miniaturization technology combined with DNA editing becoming ubiquitous will allow for massive destruction of human life by virtually anyone that has the resources and will to do it. We have to find ways to peacefully integrate all ethnicity's, religions and ideologies so that they will resolve differences peacefully instead of going to suicide bomber mode. How do we do this?

    2) Space mining is going to be the New World of the mid 21st century, and that is not scifi folks. The immense wealth in Near Earth Asteroids is in the thousands of trillions of dollars and that is less than 10% of the total asteroid mass in our solar system. 16 Psyche is just mind bogglingly loaded. We need to try to iron out rules and appeals, etc to avoid conflict triggering events and not tank our commodities market.

    3) Strong AI and the Singularity is definitely coming people. Strap in and hold on to your ass cause its going to be a thrill a minute.

    4) Androids will be ubiquitous by 2050. Everyone will own at least two. How will that change our culture, our economy? Our family structures? Where will the government get revenue from with almost $0 from individuals tax funds?

    5) I think the odds are very high that we will openly encounter extra terrestrial intelligence. How will this affect our religions, our self image and our sense of security?
     
  2. toobfreak
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    toobfreak Gold Member

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    I beg to differ. I see the top 5 tech challenges in coming years to be:
    1. Finding a way to feed all the people.
    2. Figuring out what to do with all their waste and pollution.
    3. Meeting the energy demands of all these billions of people.
    4. Finding work for all the people they are replacing with robots.
    5. Meeting the challenge of supporting all the unemployed impoverished people they created and giving them all the adequate healthcare they need as well as dealing with all the new diseases set forth in an overpopulated, overcrowded world.
    Without meeting those 5 first, nothing else matters.
     
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  3. Mac1958
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    Mac1958 Diamond Member

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    Yang is the only candidate who sees what's happening and what's coming.
     
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  4. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    I was not very clear by what I meant. I posted that when I was sleepy so I did not express myself very well. Sorry about that.
    What i meant was challenges to develop and exploit new opportunity, like a new frontier, a tired old phrase but it is the only thing I can think of that works.

    Growing the food isnt the problem. Reducing how much we lose via corrupt government and spoilage is the real problem with feeding the world.

    Incineration then recycling it as fertilizer I think is the final answer, but it is energy intensive.

    Thorium Molten Salt Reactors will do the trick I think. It is 100% safe, no significant radioactive byproduct because it all gets recycled as new fuel.
    [TMSR Thorium fuel is converted into..] First as U-233 (90% will fission) and then the remaining 10% has another chance as it transmutes to U-235 (80% will fission). The fraction of fuel reaching neptunium-237, the most likely transuranic element, is therefore only 2%, about 15 kg per GWe-year.[52] This is a transuranic production 20x smaller than light water reactors, which produce 300 kg of transuranics per GWe-year. Importantly, because of this much smaller transuranic production, it is much easier to recycle the transuranics. That is, they are sent back to the core to eventually fission. Reactors operating on the U238-plutonium fuel cycle produce far more transuranics, making full recycle difficult on both reactor neutronics and the recycling system. In the LFTR, only a fraction of a percent, as reprocessing losses, goes to the final waste. When these two benefits of lower transuranic production, and recycling, are combined, a thorium fuel cycle reduces the production of transuranic wastes by more than a thousand-fold compared to a conventional once-through uranium-fueled light water reactor. The only significant long-lived waste is the uranium fuel itself, but this can be used indefinitely by recycling, always generating electricity.

    Yep, I think we will need a UBI for that, and a robust barter trade that people can pursue trading hand made products that are guaranteed to be unique and very durable. We already see this industry developing on Etsy and it can evolve into local barter with a simple third party like a church that acts as middle man.

    So far we have managed to contain these diseases mostly and develop0e innoculations if not cures. But as our medical tech develops exponentially, the diseases rate of mutation does not.

    Agreed, but that is not what I was driving at.

    My bad.
     
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  5. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Yeah, Yang is impressive in many ways. I agree with him far more than I disagree
    To keep this short, the disagreements are with
    1) Abortion IMO should be limited by law to the first 4 months, abortion providers should meet the same quality standards as any hospital and a 'remorse phase' should be given where the patient sees a sonogram of the baby, then has 48 hours to reconsider and then can get the procedure. We give people several days to reconsider a car purchase, but not to reconsider the killing of their unborn child? Doesnt make sense to me.

    2) I think he is too early with his UBI proposal. A UBI is supposed to be a minimum income for survival, i.e. pay rent, buy food i.e. a minimum life style. I dont think anyone can live on $1000/month, can they? I think this should also be funded through a Robotics tax, not a VAT. VATs are hidden taxes that are regressive in nature. A robotics tax would apply to the principle beneficiaries of the automation revolution; corporations.

    3) Medicare for all I think is a poor approach to something that is needed, that being Universal Health care. Medicare is for seniors and I dont think it is a popular idea to mess with it among seniors. MedicAID is the better approach that can be turned into a government issued 'public option' health insurance. We could start by modifying the ACA a bit, using a national level insurance pool for competitive offers and basing the premiums for Medicaid on 80% of the average cost of comparable plans and then prorate it based on income levels, free for those at 130% of the poverty line and below, and adjusting it up by 1% for every 3% of additional income. And poof we have universal health care while allowing for private health insurance too. Messing with Medicare is an inherently bad idea, IMO.

    4) Yang does not advocate a mandatory buyback on Assault Weapons, nor a ban on them. I guess the idea of a voluntary buyback is to get as many off the street as possible, but I think such thinking approaches the problem from the wrong end, which would be to maintain a database of those who should not be allowed to buy guns of any type and then enforce that prohibition by fines and jail time.

    5) Yang supports a gun licensing program, but for what purpose?
    Andrew Yang on Gun Control
    Most Americans agree on common-sense safety requirements and restrictions on firearms.​

      • As President, I will...
      • Promote a stringent, tiered licensing system for gun ownership (think a CDL vs. a regular driver's license):
      • All tiers: Pass a federal background check, eliminating the gun show loophole.
      • Tier 1--Basic hunting rifles and handguns: Provide a receipt for an appropriately-sized gun locker, or trigger lock per registered gun.
      • Tier 2--Semi-automatic rifles: Have a Tier 1 license for at least 1 year; Pass an advanced firearm safety class.
      • Tier 3--Advanced and automatic weaponry: Ban high-capacity magazines; Require submission of fingerprints and DNA to the FBI
      • Those who currently own any firearms will be grandfathered in with their current license, and for the 1-year requirement if they decide to apply for a Tier 2 license.
    The trick is, what do gun owners gain in such a new system? Making it 100% voluntary, using it as an automatic bypass for private gun sales instead of a pain in the ass background check, and having reciprocity in all 50 states sounds like a fair trade.

    6) Yang wants to fine Gun makers $1 million for each life taken in a public setting. This is my worst disagreement with him. It would drive all our gun makers out of business.

    7) Yang wants citizenship for Dreamers, and I agree, but I think they should do a 'touchback' and get a temporary visa till it is complete. Yang has some other interesting ideas on immigration that I wont go into for brevity sake.

    8) Yang wants to reduce DoD budget by 10% and put it into infrastructure spending, which I think is a good idea. He also wants to update our defense commitments to reflect current challenges, something I also agree with and he want to emphasize development of more cyber-warfare capability. My only quibble is that he has no emphasis on Space defense and development that I have found as of yet. We need to have a Space Force to protect our interests in space.

    9) Yang is not a career politician, which I really like, but I wonder about his idealism and vision of America as a unique place. But he is right about one thing; Americans need to think more and think with more objectivity.

    Best thing I have heard about Yang was from the debates, the so-called Ellen question:

    But Yang has been succeeding largely in spite of the debates, not because of them. But he absolutely knocked it out of the park on this one, with a vibrant story about a voter he met on the campaign trail, a “guy named Fred, who's an avid Trump supporter, a trucker. He let me ride in his truck for hours. He spent some time in jail. I heard about his experiences trying to get other people off of drugs.” He then revealed that Fred is now supporting Yang in 2020.

    It was the best answer of the night, because it was the most forward-looking answer of the night. Instead of talking about Washington insiders and a bygone era of a bipartisan Congress, or promising to hold people ‘accountable,’ Yang offered a diagnosis of our problem, and a path forward. He sounded confident. He sounded like he understood why people voted for Trump, like he sympathizes with them and recognizes that Trump broke his promises to them. Instead of focusing on how Republicans are wrong about why things aren’t great (it’s not immigration, ‘PC culture,’ bad trade deals), he focused on how they’re right that things aren’t great, and offered a path forward.​
     
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    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  6. Mac1958
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    Mac1958 Diamond Member

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    Yeah, he's my guy. If he's on the ticket, my chances of voting Democratic go up.
    .
     
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  7. toobfreak
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    toobfreak Gold Member

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    Miniaturization will also expand to cover weapons, medical science and electronics. In the latter, the goal is one electron = 1 bit of info. Downside: extremely susceptible to damage from ESD or EMD.
    Agreed, with the first target being the Moon itself. The Moon is also the logical stepping off platform for reaching the asteroids and Mars. Exploit, exploit, exploit.
    Thankfully I won't be around to see what will prove to be one of the biggest mistakes man ever unleashed upon himself. Man predatoring man.
    Again, not in my home. I don't even own a smart phone. I'm a firm believer in being self-reliant, and in not having more technology in my life than I really need.
    We'll encounter it. But it will be in the form of primitive microbes and possibly sea life under the seas of likely either Europa or Enceladas.
     
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  8. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    I would consider voting him based on all the issues but one; the fine on gun manufacturers. That is a deal breaker for me.

    Hopefully when he runs again in 2024, he will have improved this position to mandatory insurance for tier 2 & 3 weapons instead.
     
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  9. DOTR
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    DOTR Gold Member

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    Uh oh...another non-crazy candidate from mac. This one wants to give away money. Not his of course! Perish the thought! He is so kind hearted he wants to give away other peoples money! Like a kindly old uncle...who mugs people on the subway and gives you their wallets.


    Sheesh even parents, who love and live for their children, know that handing out money is damaging (not to mention unsustainable)
     
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  10. DOTR
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    DOTR Gold Member

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    LOL. Mac! You mean the chances of you voting Democrat go from 99.7% to 99.9%?
     
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