US reaches trade deal with China (phase 1)

Discussion in 'Economy' started by AzogtheDefiler, Dec 12, 2019.

  1. AzogtheDefiler
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    AzogtheDefiler The Pale Orc Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    You just said you were never satisfied so 9% or 900% would be irrelevant to you. 54% over 3 years doesn't impress you it seems.
     
  2. Golfing Gator
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    It does not impress me when I know that 45 of the 54 of that came in the first year.
     
  3. AzogtheDefiler
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    AzogtheDefiler The Pale Orc Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Why does it matter when it comes so long as it does? Markets will have ups and downs if you left your money in the market and dollar cost averaged you're up how much over 3 years? But again you admitted you're never satisfied. If it were 15%, 15%, 24% over 3 yrs, you would still not be satisfied.
     
  4. Golfing Gator
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    It matters because I know how good it could have been.

    I am not sure why you are satisfied with "good enough". Are you that way at work..."well boss you should be satisfied, it was good enough."?
     
  5. AzogtheDefiler
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    AzogtheDefiler The Pale Orc Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Could have been? What if in three years the growth is 200% because of some current pain points. I am my own boss. But I always tell my clients to view plans like chess players. Long term strategy. Thing multiple moves ahead not one or two. It is OK to sacrifice some pieces in order to garner victory.
     
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    Then I would be very happy.

    The problem with that is most people do not know the right piece to sacrifice.

    If you are truly what you say you are, then you understand that a recession/down turn is inevitable. It is not an "if" but a "when".

    That is why maximized growth during this "boom" is essential.
     
  7. AzogtheDefiler
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    AzogtheDefiler The Pale Orc Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    If I tell you we will have an earthquake in Cali then I would be correct, eventually. We could hit a recession if Trump loses in 2020. If he wins I do not see one over the next two years. The possible bubbles:

    • Student Loan Debt
    • Leverage Market
    Those are definitely huge risks, especially the latter one. Key is employment and corporate confidence. Impossible to negotiate with the Chinese when we are struggling. Negotiation now makes sense as we are doing well.
     
  8. Golfing Gator
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    Except that market downturn/corrections are more regular and are part of the system that cannot be stopped from happening.

    Employment is key, confidence be it corporate or consumer is not a key to anything. Confidence is often the highest right before the crash. Debt in general will be the next bubble, corporate and consumer is though the roof...not to mention the Fed debt that nobody seems to care about any more
     
  9. AzogtheDefiler
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    AzogtheDefiler The Pale Orc Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Yes but the last two were caused by bubbles.

    #1) Internet... Dot.com boom and bust

    #2) Mortgage crisis

    There needs to be a catalyst.
     
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    And neither of those two bubbles are near as large as the debt bubble when you add in the Fed Govt and most of Europe.
     

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